Scientific programme in the frameworks of the program-targeted financing
for 2023-2024
Central Asian Regional Glaciological Center as a category 2 centre under the auspices of UNESCO (CARGC)
“Glacial systems of Central Asia transboundary basins: condition, current and forecast changes, role in ensuring water security of region countries”
Program purpose - to assess the current condition, trends and prospects of changes of glaciation in the transboundary basins of Kazakhstan and neighboring countries of Central Asia (Balkash-Alakol, Yertis, Syrdarya and Amudarya) and their impact to the river flow.
The actuality of the research is determined by the fact that, according to the target tasks, the proposed program fully meets the interests of the conflict-free interstate use of transboundary water resources of the region, the priorities of the IX phase of the UNESCO Intergovernmental Hydrological Program, ensuring the conditions for national and regional security of the countries of the region, strategic and program documents of the Republic of Kazakhstan:
- "Strategy "Kazakhstan-2050", a new political course of established state";
- Decree of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated February 15, 2018 No. 636. “On approval of the Strategic development plan of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2025”.
- Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated January 6, 2012 No. 527-IV. "On the national security of the Republic of Kazakhstan".
- "National project on water resources management of Kazakhstan until 2025".
Program expected results
The main results of the research, corresponding to the achievement of the goal and objectives of the Program, will be:
– new glaciers Inventories of the transboundary basins of Syrdarya (Central, Inner and Western Tien Shan) and Amudarya (Pamir-Alai) in amount sufficient to confidently assess the real loss of glacier area/volume for the periods between years of re-inventory of glaciers and the corresponding losses of glacial resources;
- organized system of year-round hydrometeorological and glacial-geocryological monitoring based on the mountain stations of the Centre as the basis for assessing the response of the cryosphere (snow cover, glaciers, ground ice) of the runoff formation zone to climate change;
- results of quantitative assessment of the role of ground ice melt water in runoff formation (by the example of Ile Alatau control basin).
- new knowledge about current and forecasted changes in glacial systems of the studied transboundary basins and their impact to the river runoff and water resources in the context of water and food security problems in Kazakhstan and neighboring countries of Central Asia;
- recommendations for the implementation of the developed methods of operational monitoring of the glacial systems condition, correction of obviously doubtful data from previously created glaciers inventories;
- recommendations on the methodology developed in the course of research for assessment of glacial runoff, based mainly on the data from monitoring of test glaciers mass balance;
- theoretical substantiation of the possibility of assessing the melt waters of ground ice (buried glaciers, ice of rock glaciers, collapsed rocks, permafrost) and their participation in the formation of river runoff;
- Results of the assessment of the loss of multi-year ice volume of glaciers of the studied transboundary basins for the past decades and their impact to the river runoff.
The scientific results obtained under the Program will be the actual basis for making decisions in the field of long-term planning for the development of the water sector of the economy of Kazakhstan and countries of the region and the joint use of transboundary water resources.
– The target consumers of the obtained results will be the bodies of the state basin management of water resources, as well as development institutions and operational organizations of the watereconomy profile.
– The social effect of research under the proposed Program is the development of measures to adapt the population and economy of the countries of the region to probable climate-related changes in water resources. The expected results of assessing the role of ground ice meltwater in the formation of runoff can significantly reduce the "degree" of anxiety of expectations of reduction in runoff during the growing season, and, accordingly, the level of social tension in the countries of Central Asia.
– The economic effect should be to optimize the interstate use of the flow of transboundary rivers in the region, operational and long-term planning of the water sector of the economy of the region countries.